🚨URGENT: Watch Before Monday 9 30am! The BEST Trade Setups For Fed Cuts
Duration
14:53
Captions
1
Language
EN
Published
Sep 14, 2025
Description
🚀 Trade live with me every morning: https://whop.com/thetravelingtrader ✅ If you're only interested in long term investing (not trading) you can still get my long term market insights at a more affordable tier ($35 a month! Going up to $50 soon): https://whop.com/investing-floor/ 🔵 Get Public here: https://www.pqr3ntrk.com/B9KLQL/225JFQ/ 🤑 80% off Apex funded accounts plus 1 Day Pass. Use code TTT at checkout. https://apextraderfunding.com/member/aff/go/thetravelingtrader 🦄 My favorite trading journal 👉🏼 Tradezella. Take 20% off the annual plan with code TTT20 at checkout: https://tradezella.com?fpr=ttt36 📈 Get TradingView here: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=146154 📸 Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetravel1ngtrader/ 💬 Follow me on X! https://twitter.com/zthetrader ✉️ Get the free weekly watchlist here: https://whop.com/the-traveling-trader/?pass=prod_LP92xMiKKjgt7 📺 Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWt3Cx6RrHX86_yF4I7f1LA/join 👾 Join the FREE Discord here: https://discord.gg/aUG5Zx2 🦎 Get MarketChameleon here: https://marketchameleon.com/?pap_aid=travelingtrader 📈 Get TradingView here: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=146154 0:00 Intro 0:41 What Will Happen After Fed Cut 7:39 Stocks to Trade Now 14:07 Live Trade Example
Captions (1)
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs, and
this coming week, the Fed is about to
cut interest rates. Now, believe it or
not, we've actually had this scenario
happen a few times. So, what happens
when the Fed cuts rates while the market
is at an all-time high? Quad witching is
also this coming Friday. So, in this
video, I'm going to give you everything
that you need to know this week that
affects you, your portfolio, and your
money. And most importantly, we're going
to go over some of my favorite trade
setups that I see this week coming up.
And towards the end of the video, I'll
be sharing with you a live clip of us
trading from our live trading session
last Friday. Cuz one of the most common
questions I get is, "What are the live
trading sessions like?" Let's get right
into it. So, the Fed is going to cut on
September 17th. There is a 100% chance
that the Fed cuts. It's just a matter of
do they cut by 25 basis points or 50
basis points. You could see the
probabilities right there. Now, why is
the Fed cutting? Well, last week we had
another round of bad jobs data.
Unemployment claims coming in much
higher than expected. But if you take a
look at the week prior, it was a week
full of bad jobs data from Jolts job
openings coming in less than expected,
non-farm employment change coming in
less than expected, unemployment claims
much higher than expected. You get the
picture. And as of right now, the Fed
funds rate is 425 to 450 basis points,
meaning 4.25 to 4.5%.
Now, we've seen in the past where during
bull markets, in hyperrowth cycles, even
in a bubble forming like the internet
bubble in the late '9s, as long as the
Fed just starts to cut slowly, then the
market should be fine. When the Fed has
a reason to slam rates because of a
recession, that is when we get into
trouble. Let's dive into the data a bit
further. Now, the important thing with
this rate cut is the last time that the
Fed cut rates was actually 10 months
ago. And when the Fed waits in between
rate cuts and does these tepid or these
minor cuts as opposed to slamming rates
to zero, the market actually ends up
performing really well. Why is that?
Well, because when the Fed is just
cutting slowly and it looks like they're
taking their time, what that signals to
the market is that there isn't anything
to panic about. When the Fed has to cut
and they cut drastically, that's when we
tend to see these effects where we enter
a recession the the minute that the Fed
slams rates to zero or sometimes the Fed
slams rates to zero because we've
entered a recession. It's kind of a
chicken or the egg thing. But you can
see here these gray bars are recessions.
Now, one other thing that's important
here is that a week ago, it was much
higher chance that the Fed would cut by
50 basis points as opposed to 25. And
here's where potential volatility comes.
The reason that the chances of a 50
basis point cut have decreased is
because inflation is still an issue.
While PPI numbers last Wednesday
surprised to the downside, coming in
negative for both core as well as PPI
month-to-month, CPI was a bit of a
different story. The year-over-year CPI
came in as expected at 2.9%.
However, CPI month-over-month came in
hotter than expected by 10 basis points.
So when that CPI number came out, the 50
basis point rate cut went from an 11%
probability to 3 and a half.
Additionally, what Jerome Powell says on
September 17th is going to be really
important. If he signals that they are
cutting rates because they are seeing
trouble, that can spook the market in
the short term. This has actually
happened quite a few times. When you
look here at the next month or next 3
months after a Fed rate cut where the
Fed waits 5 to 12 months to cut, we have
had actually many negative one-month
returns and many negative 3-month
returns that actually look pretty
significant. So there obviously could be
an opportunity here if we do get a
correction as a result of this depending
on what he says and how much they cut
by. One other thing to note because one
of the unique situations here or unique
aspects of this situation is that the
S&P 500 is at all-time highs. So, have
we had occurrences in the past where the
where the Fed cuts rates while the S&P
500 is at all-time highs? The answer is
yes. Here's that data. When the Fed has
cut rates while the S&P 500 is within 2%
of an all-time high, you could see
within the next month we have had some
volatility. In the next three months,
there is also some volatility as well.
The important part is the next year has
been green 20 out of 20 times. Now,
before I get into my favorite trade
setups this week, the last time that the
Fed cut by more than expected was in
2024, September 2024 and November 2002.
What happened to the market then? Well,
on November 6, 2002, the market was
reeling from a bare market, from the.com
crash. And so after the Fed meeting,
what happened was the market actually
declined by 15% thereafter. But that was
the bottom of the market for years to
come. September 18th, 2024, the Fed was
expected to cut by 25 basis points. They
did a jumbo cut by 50 basis points. And
the market continued to rally thereafter
until February of 2025. And then you
guys know what happened. Liberation Day
and thereafter. Now, Friday, August 22nd
was Jackson Hole. This is when the Fed
signaled that there might be an upcoming
policy change. So this little runup that
we see here from Jackson Hole to now is
about 3%. Could that have been the
frontloading of the news or the
expectation that the Fed was going to
cut by 25 basis points? The answer is
yes, it could. Right now the Fed is
expected to cut by 25. So if the Fed
cuts by 25 and they don't really signal
anything out of this world, we could see
a little bit of volatility thereafter
because most of this 3% runup was the
expectation that the Fed was going to
cut by 25. So we could see a sell the
news effect, but something that's not
too drastic. If the Fed cuts, but they
signal that they're cutting because
things in the labor market are breaking,
even though inflation could be rising,
that could send fear into the market
that could potentially give us one of
these corrections. And by one of these
corrections, I mean the ones that are on
record when the Fed cuts within 2% of
all-time high and or one of these
corrections when the Fed has waited 5 to
12 months before a cut. Both of these
scenarios are in play right now. The Fed
is cutting at all-time highs and the Fed
is cutting after waiting five to 12
months in between cuts. But in my
opinion, any correction that we see as a
result of this, and you probably should
be hoping that it is a double-digit
correction because what happens the next
year is typically extremely bullish. And
no, I'm not a fool. I understand that
the valuations that we are dealing with
right now are insane. But I shared this
with you guys and I'm going to do a
whole video on this. What happens when
you buy stocks or when you buy the stock
the S&P 500 at this current valuation?
Your 10-year returns annualized are
actually in between -2% and 2%. Which is
probably the reason why we have a record
amount of money in money markets.
However, singledigit returns like what
could happen within a given year when
markets are at this valuation. We've had
many one-year returns that are in the
double-digit percentage points. This is
why I said that this reminds me very
much of the late '9s. This is this is
very much tracking what we saw in 1998
where this bull market can have
outstanding returns for the next year or
two, but in reality, the 10-year
annualized returns
not very great at this point. So, here
are the short and midterm setups that
I'm looking at. And if you want to trade
live with me every single day, link is
in the description below. I go live
every day at market open and you will
see a clip of that towards the end of
the video. So here are the setups. Tesla
with an absolute monster breakout.
Congrats to those of you who have been
paying attention to the videos the last
couple of months paying attention to
this pattern. This to me above the 367
equal highs was inevitable. Now Tesla is
near 400 and I think it obviously gets
to that 400 psychological level but I
think it even gets higher than that. I
think Tesla will hit all-time highs by
the end of the year, which is almost at
$490. However, I would not chase Tesla
here. I think that you need to wait for
a little bit of a pullback and hopefully
gives us a perfect setup retesting these
equal highs and this resistance level as
support. Now, one thing to note about
stocks is sometimes they give you a
setup where it's surprisingly easy. I
think everyone and their mother uh
unless they their only goal was to
ridicule me and ridicule this setup. I
think everyone and their mother made
money on Tesla, right? This was a clean
setup. If you opened a textbook setup to
a breakout of a pennant, it would look
like this. And sometimes stocks won't
give you the obvious setup. But this
idea that if it's too obvious, it will
never work out. That's Now
hopefully we do get some sort of
pullback that allows us to long to some
of these resistance levels. 420 is a
resistance level ironically. We also
have a resistance level at 440 and then
all-time highs at around 490. A stock
that I'm looking to pick up for deep
value in the long term. Not just yet,
but it has to show me support cuz right
now it's a falling knife, but Chipotle
is starting to look really attractive.
This is a stock that was trading near 70
is now trading at 38. And we do have a
major support resistance level at around
the $35 mark. You could see here that
this was support but also was previous
resistance. Robin Hood is one that I
hope gives us a correction. We traded
Robin Hood because of the potential
announcement that it would get that that
there would be an announcement that it
would enter the S&P 500. That was
already announced. Now it's going to
enter the S&P 500 on the 22nd. On the
17th, we have the FOMC rate cut. And
then on the 19th, we have the quad
witching. Quad witching is basically
when futures expire, when options
expire, and when options on futures
expire all on the same day. So, I'm
hoping that type of volatility can bring
us a sell the news effect on Robin Hood
because I think any correction here will
be welcomed after after Robin Hood
enters the S&P 500. We know what stocks
look like after they enter the S&P 500.
Over 90% of the time, they're always
higher than before they entered the S&P
500, especially if it's a stock that has
a lot of volume and a lot of hype behind
it. Now, while the market was rallying,
Amazon actually dropped 5% in 3 days,
seeing some profit taking. So, what I
want to see is if this support level
here is established for a move to back
to all-time highs. And the last setup
that I'll give you here that I'm looking
at is Ethereum. I want to see if
Ethereum does get rejected here from
this daily fair value gap. Can Ethereum
get rejected and take out these lows and
retest that 4,000 level? I gave you guys
Bitmine Emerion Technologies. This is
the ETH fund that Tom Lee heads. And I
showed you this pattern here. I
personally did not enter it yet because
I was actually waiting for ETH to take
out those equal lows. But I did give you
this trade idea in my last couple of
videos. And we did see a nice breakout
having a 15% day last Monday. I'm
currently not going to chase this. I am
tracking what BMNR does by looking at
Ethereum. Now, Ethereum can definitely
come into this daily fair value gap and
rally from here to break the all-time
highs at around 5,000. But if we do
close below this daily fair value gap
here, then I will be expecting Ethereum
to test these equal lows and test this
previous high and test that
psychological level of 4,000. And I'm
hoping that maybe some of the volatility
because of quad witching and because of
the rate cuts can potentially give us
that opportunity. The point is there is
going to be a ton of opportunity in the
market coming up in September and
October. And if you are someone who
trades, obviously you want volatility.
If you are someone who is looking for
prime swing trading setups, you want
volatility. And if you are looking for
if you are someone who is looking for
long-term setups to add some of your
favorite stocks, you definitely want to
see a correction and preferably a
double-digit correction. And hopefully
some of the data that we looked at
matches up with what is currently going
on and with the Fed's narrative because
in my opinion, you want to see that the
market needs to cool off in order to
provide some asymmetric bets. Obviously,
you can continue to long the highs and
hope that it continues to break out. And
if that floats your boat, awesome. But
in my opinion, you definitely want to
see some volatility and some form of
pullback in order to enter these things
more optimally and that way you can
manage your stops because if you're
wrong, you end up losing very little and
if you are right, it's an asymmetric bet
where it pays you off big and that's the
position that we want to try to be in
with every single trade that we take. If
you want to trade live with me every
single day at market open, link is in
the description below. If you are only
interested in long-term investing and
long-term stock analysis, there is a
tier for you as well. And I want you
guys to stick around till the end of the
video to watch the the clip of of one of
our actual live sessions where we are
live trading with the group of a
thousand traders. And not only that, but
there's an active chat where we are
discussing ideas all day. So it is a
very collaborative group. Uh and it
definitely feels like family where we
are sharing ideas with each other and
it's not just me. Other members who are
boss traders who have done really well
on their accounts are also sharing ideas
trying to provide the group with value.
Let me know what you think the Fed is
going to do in the comment section
below. Let me know some of the favorite
setups that you are looking at as well
as what stocks are you salivating to buy
at the moment. Subscribe to the channel.
Hit that notification bell. Stay safe
out there, traders. Peace. Have a great
week. Like I said, I think Amazon can
turn into a long here.
I'll go next week's 230 calls. 232 and
1/2 next week has a good bit ask. Holy
boner on Amazon. Those 232 and 1/2 calls
are killing it. Took half off. I have 25
contracts left. Okay, we just hit 8:30.
Filled the 15-minute fair value gap. I
don't want to get too greedy here.
I'm okay with 30%. But netted a cool
2500 on Amazon, which definitely makes
up for the little ENQ loss I had. I mean
the ENQ loss was 3
20 330